Zoopla Cities House Price Index - March 2020

30 April 2020  |  Admin  |  0 Comments

Our partner at Zoopla share the latest property news. 

Our monthly report on house prices and the housing market shows the impact of coronavirus - and some pick-up.

 

  • UK city house price growth +1.8%, with March recording lowest monthly growth for a year (<0.1%).
  • Demand for housing fell by 70% from early March. The decline bottomed out in early April and has been increasing steadily over the last 3 weeks. Demand remains 60% lower than in early March. 
  • We estimate that there are 373,000 sales held up by the lockdown for homes worth £82bn.
  • We expect completed housing sales to be 50% lower in 2020 compared to 2019.

The housing market is in a period of suspended animation due to the Coronavirus lock down, as shown in our monthly UK Cities House Price Index*. 

Despite the social distancing restrictions, our latest data shows that browsing levels have started to rise, as has demand from buyers.

Some buyers also want to press ahead with agreeing sales, encouraged by government support for the economy and very low mortgage rates. But the number of new sales being agreed is much lower than early March 2020, and closer to the quieter Christmas period.

The fall and rise of housing demand since the start of coronavirus 

The demand for housing fell by 70% between the start of March 2020 and the week ending 29 March, with the greatest decline recorded ahead of the coronavirus lockdown.

The drop in demand bottomed out in early April and has since started to improve slowly from a low base. Despite a steady increase in buyers looking for homes, demand still remains 60% below the levels recorded at the start of March.

The housing market is in a period of suspended animation due to the coronavirus lockdown, as shown in our monthly UK Cities House Price Index*. 

Despite the social distancing restrictions, our latest data shows that browsing levels have started to rise, as has demand from buyers.

Some buyers also want to press ahead with agreeing sales, encouraged by government support for the economy and low mortgage rates. But the number of new sales being agreed is much lower than early March 2020, and closer to the quieter Christmas period.

The fall and rise of housing demand since the start of coronavirus 

The demand for housing fell by 70% between the start of March 2020 and the week ending 29 March, with the greatest decline recorded ahead of the coronavirus lockdown.

The drop in demand bottomed out in early April and has since started to improve slowly from a low base. Despite a steady increase in buyers looking for homes, demand still remains 60% below the levels recorded at the start of March.

Check out the interactive map below for March changes to UK Cities house prices.

While buyers are unable to view homes for sale in person, they can still browse online. Estate agents and new-build developers also offer virtual viewings.

There are still plenty of homes to choose from with total property listings down just 4% over the last few months. 

In fact browsing activity has also been picking up over the last few weeks. After declining by more than 50% in March, browsing levels are now 37% lower than 1 March. 

Richard Donnell, Director of Research & Insight at Zoopla, said: “There is a two-speed housing market at present. Parts of the market are at a virtual standstill as a result of the physical restrictions that have stopped new supply coming to the market and the viewing of homes for sale. 

"However, the online browsing of homes for sale and buyers expressing interest in property have been rising off a low base over the last two to three weeks. Demand for housing is still 60% lower than at the start of March, but we expect interest in housing to continue to improve slowly.

"Many people have spent more time at home in the last few weeks and some may feel the urge to move and find more space or consider the potential for remote working. This could boost activity in the second half of 2020, but this all depends upon how much the economy is impacted over the rest of the year and the impact on levels of unemployment.”

Which cities have already seen a pick-up in demand?

In mid-April demand for housing in cities across northern England has rebounded more strongly - notably in ManchesterLiverpool and Leeds. These are all cities where 2020 started strongly and where housing affordability remains attractive, and where there may be a faster bounce-back when restrictions lift.

By contrast, cities with traditionally more expensive properties, such as CambridgeEdinburgh and Southampton, have seen a limited improvement in demand in April. 

What's been happening to house prices?

Our data shows that annual house price growth was at 1.8% across the UK in March, higher than a year ago when it was running at 1.2%. It's too early for our data to be fully pricing in the impact of coronavirus, but the monthly growth rate of 0.1% recorded in March was the lowest for a year, and a third of the level seen in January and February.

In terms of house price growth by city, the five best performing cities recorded annual house price growth of more than 3%. Nottingham continued to lead with an annual growth increase of 4.1%. 

 

What's the outlook for the housing market?

Total levels of activity have been affected by coronavirus and the subsequent lockdown. Our research and insight team estimates that more than 370,000 sales could currently be stalled in some way. 

Some of these sales will simply complete later in the year, but overall, the number of completed home sales this year could be 50% lower than in 2019.

"Without doubt, once the coronavirus restrictions are relaxed, we should expect the release of demand that has been building since Brexit and political uncertainty that destabilised market sentiment.

"That said, the case for a stamp duty holiday to support a resumption of market activity is clear and a high proportion of savings are likely to be spent, further stimulating economic activity.

"It is too early to register any pricing impact given new sales volumes are 90% down on the start of March. Demand is rising but there is a long way to go until we see a return to typical levels of market activity."    

Top 3 takeaways

  1. Demand for homes fell by 70% over March 2020 but the decline bottomed out by early April and there was an increase in demand over the three weeks to 19 April
  2. While agents are taking on fewer homes, the total number of homes for sale was just 4% lower than at the start of March, signalling no mass withdrawal of homes listed for sale
  3. Annual house price growth to March 2020 was up 1.8%, but the price change registered over the month of March was the lowest for a year at 0.1%

While buyers are unable to view homes for sale in person, they can still browse online. Estate agents and new-build developers also offer virtual viewings.

There are still plenty of homes to choose from with total property listings down just 4% over the last few months. 

In fact browsing activity has also been picking up over the last few weeks. After declining by more than 50% in March, browsing levels are now 37% lower than 1 March. 

Richard Donnell, Director of Research & Insight at Zoopla, said: “There is a two-speed housing market at present. Parts of the market are at a virtual standstill as a result of the physical restrictions that have stopped new supply coming to the market and the viewing of homes for sale. 

"However, the online browsing of homes for sale and buyers expressing interest in property have been rising off a low base over the last two to three weeks. Demand for housing is still 60% lower than at the start of March, but we expect interest in housing to continue to improve slowly.

"Many people have spent more time at home in the last few weeks and some may feel the urge to move and find more space or consider the potential for remote working. This could boost activity in the second half of 2020, but this all depends upon how much the economy is impacted over the rest of the year and the impact on levels of unemployment.”

Which cities have already seen a pick-up in demand?

In mid-April demand for housing in cities across northern England has rebounded more strongly - notably in ManchesterLiverpool and Leeds. These are all cities where 2020 started strongly and where housing affordability remains attractive, and where there may be a faster bounce-back when restrictions lift.

By contrast, cities with traditionally more expensive properties, such as CambridgeEdinburgh and Southampton, have seen a limited improvement in demand in April. 

What's been happening to house prices?

Our data shows that annual house price growth was at 1.8% across the UK in March, higher than a year ago when it was running at 1.2%. It's too early for our data to be fully pricing in the impact of coronavirus, but the monthly growth rate of 0.1% recorded in March was the lowest for a year, and a third of the level seen in January and February.

In terms of house price growth by city, the five best performing cities recorded annual house price growth of more than 3%. Nottingham continued to lead with an annual growth increase of 4.1%. 

 

What's the outlook for the housing market?

Total levels of activity have been affected by coronavirus and the subsequent lockdown. Our research and insight team estimates that more than 370,000 sales could currently be stalled in some way. 

Some of these sales will simply complete later in the year, but overall, the number of completed home sales this year could be 50% lower than in 2019.

"Without doubt, once the coronavirus restrictions are relaxed, we should expect the release of demand that has been building since Brexit and political uncertainty that destabilised market sentiment.

"That said, the case for a stamp duty holiday to support a resumption of market activity is clear and a high proportion of savings are likely to be spent, further stimulating economic activity.

"It is too early to register any pricing impact given new sales volumes are 90% down on the start of March. Demand is rising but there is a long way to go until we see a return to typical levels of market activity."    

Top 3 takeaways

  1. Demand for homes fell by 70% over March 2020 but the decline bottomed out by early April and there was an increase in demand over the three weeks to 19 April
  2. While agents are taking on fewer homes, the total number of homes for sale was just 4% lower than at the start of March, signalling no mass withdrawal of homes listed for sale
  3. Annual house price growth to March 2020 was up 1.8%, but the price change registered over the month of March was the lowest for a year at 0.1%