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House Price Index March 23

Cautious recovery continues but larger home sales lag behind

  • +6% Increase in buyer demand versus same period in 2019.
  • The average price of property coming to market rises by 0.8% (+£2,906) this month, mainly due to a 1.2% jump in the largest homes sector (top of the ladder):
  • Annual asking price growth eases to +3.0%, with new seller asking prices now £5,800 below October’s peak as market cautiously moves towards pre pandemic activity levels despite economic turbulence.
  • Typical first buyer type properties (two bedrooms and fewer) lead the recovery as we enter spring market.
  • Average newly marketed prices for this type of home are now just £500 lower than their record last year.
  • Sales agreed in this sector are unexpectedly recovering fastest, and in the last two weeks are just 4% behind the same period in the more normal market of 2019, though 18% behind the exceptional 2022.
  • However, larger home sales are lagging behind as sales agreed in the last two weeks in the top sector are 10% behind the same period in 2019,  and 13% behind in the second stepper sector.
  • Average mortgage rates have fallen back from their peak last year, with average rates for a 15% deposit five year fixed mortgage now 4.65%, edging down from last month’s 4.75%, and October’s 5.89%, though this compares to 2.48% in March 2022.

The average price of property coming to the market rises by 0.8% this month to £365,357. This is below the average monthly rise of 1.0% seen in March over the last 20 years, reflecting a higher degree of pricing caution by many new sellers than is usually seen at this time of year.

The exception to this caution is a 1.2% monthly price jump in the larger home top of the ladder sector, in contrast to more modest 0.4% and 0.5% respective rises in the first time buyer and second stepper sectors. Overall, new seller asking prices are now £5,800 below October 2022’s peak, with annual price growth continuing to ease and now at +3.0%. The data continues to point to a market on a much more stable footing than many anticipated and cautiously transitioning towards the activity levels of the more normal market of 2019.


Price & activity trends 

Regional trends

London boroughs

Borough data is based on a three-month rolling average and can be used as an indicator of overall price trends in each borough over time. It is not directly comparable with the overall London monthly figures.